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This made him feel like he had a fairly good read on Staples. Mo concluded that the timing and bet size he used indicated a value hand.
There is one player with an extremely short stack 1. The remaining stacks are Staples with 44 big blinds, Mo with 76 big blinds, and the chip leader BillFray with big blinds.
Action folds to BillFray on the button who opens to 2 BB. Preflop Analysis Not much to analyze, here. Flop Analysis Mo will likely check to the aggressor with his entire range on this flop, so there's not much to discuss here when BillFray checks behind.
The button does have some Tx in his range, but he won't have them that often because he would bet a lot of his Tx hands on the flop.
Then, the question becomes what sizing to use. Mo went with an overbet. In this clip, he explains why and discusses the sizing choice with Dougie P:.
In this spot, if you have a queen or a ten, you've got the goods. So the question is, what size do we want to go and what hands do we want to bluff with?
We can't go too large, because a ten is possible, but I don't think a ten is as likely as people anticipate here.
JT, T9-type hands with a backdoor flush draw are gonna be betting on the flop. And we're gonna want to pick out hands to bluff with that do not have a club, preferably do not have a J or a K -- especially a J.
So I think we do have a lot of bluffing combinations here, and I felt that using a big size represents a pretty polar value range on the river very well.
And as you said, he doesn't really have many Tx. A six on the river, for example, would have been a way worse river than a ten.
So, yeah, I felt like using a very big size is somewhat acceptable a decent amount of the time. I wouldn't always bet really large with a queen, but my Tx combos want to bet very big, especially when they have a kicker that doesn't block his calling range.
The same could be said if the turn was a 6 instead of an 8, because his opponent could play 65s this way, but would almost never play 85s this way.
The best poker players take all of the little details into consideration when considering how to play their hand. Mo goes all-in, effectively betting 22,, and his opponent calls.
His opponent shows pocket sevens and Mo scoops the pot! The river is a 4. I think his most likely hands are still Jx and then some of the sets like 88, 55, or 33, but generally I think we are still ahead of his range.
Given the [stack-to-pot ratio] that I set up nicely here for a river shove to get called by AJ or KJ, I went for the shove and got called, surprisingly not by a jack but by pocket sevens.
Probably a little too loose on his side. Mo was smirking a bit during that last sentence because he was being generous with his critique. He really meant it was definitely way too loose by his opponent.
Comparatively, Mo considers how the card effects both his range and his opponents range, what hands it improves, how likely those hands are, and any other relevant details like the pot being multiway on the flop.
Even though the flop was the only street with a particularly interesting decision made by Mo, the other streets illustrate the level of his thinking that makes him such a tournament boss.
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